A Study On Change Management Commerce Essay

A Study On Change Management Commerce Essay Accepting change is considered the biggest paranoia in todays world. Organizations – both business and non-business confront a challenging world. Some of the challenges that are faced by managers today include competition from other firms, globalization, and technological changes besides others. Let us consider a small example that can set the stage for discussing the effects of change. Daily life in a modern society is like a routine, where we wake up in the mornings, have breakfast, go for work, have lunch, come back from work, eat dinner and then sleep again. It has become a scheduled life, or so to say, we conform to structure in our lives. This structure provides us the necessary security. But, if we were to live in a world full of anxiety and unexpected mechanisms, it may leave us feeling uneasy and apprehensive. If this is the condition of individuals, a large-scale change in an organization can surely transform its people into anxiety, exasperation, frustration, depre ssion or even fatal incidents. To curb this, organizations practice what is to be referred to as Change Management. Change Management is a process whereby, the individual, team or the organization develops a planned approach towards any sort of an alteration. The objective is to capitalize the benefits for the people and lessen the risk of failure of implementation. Change management entails thoughtful planning and sensitive implementation, and most importantly, consultation with the people who are going to be involved in the process. This task studies how organizations have evolved to accept change. But let us first look at the drivers that affect organizational change: Ø Inadequate Financial Performance – the 2008 economic slowdown can be well quoted as an example for this. Companies failing to reach their financial benchmarks, have to undergo change. Competitive organizations can cannibalize their market share, provided they enter with cheaper labor or superior technolo gy. Failure to maintain the market share can force companies to rethink their opportunity cost and also the deployment of resources. Ø Changes in Strategic objectives – many companies shift their focus from being product-driven to being customer-driven or even process-driven. To enable this, restructuring and re-orientation of processes, people are required of in the organization. Ø New Technology – companies that neglect the new trends in the market are set to suffer a setback, and, therefore, should adapt to the changes in technology. Ø Mergers and Acquisitions – when companies merge and consolidate their operations, people and the culture, re-engineering takes place. The streamlining of the operations, infrastructure and the structure of the two organizations into one centralized theme is a huge part of the change management process. These, could be defined as the drivers of change that evolve businesses and markets. Organizations, today, have learn t to adapt to change. In this era of globalization, fast-moving lives and business-centered organizations, people and the processes have accepted the transformation. For instance, a lot of investment banks had to undergo transformation during the economic slowdown. Citigroup Inc. restructured its banks and other affiliates during the recessionary period, to acclimatize with the new environment. And it did happen. The management has to ensure that a smooth shift occurs, and for this it adopts a number of organizational theories as a basis for effective change management. Some of them are listed in the next few paragraphs.

Critically evalutate the evidence that criminal profiling is effective Essay

Critically evalutate the evidence that criminal profiling is effective - Essay Example It is usually carried out in a three stage process: â€Å"First, police officers collect crime scene data and forward it to a profiler; second, the profiler conducts an analysis of the crime scene data; and third, the profiler provides predictions about the type of individual likely to have committed the crime in question.† (Snook et al,, 2007, 438) There was initial enthusiasm for this approach, especially in the United States where the FBI set up a special ‘Behavioral Science Unit’ which analysed crimes and made recommendations for the application of criminal profiling in serious crime cases. From the beginning it was clear that the process involves multiple skills and multiple agencies, being a technique that combines elements of both art and science (Cook and Hinman, 1999, 230) and crosses over traditionally constructed professional boundaries. There has been discussion about some of the tensions arising from this multi-disciplinarity, and the gulf between res earchers and practitioners. (Alison et al, 2004). Critical opinion on the practice of criminal profiling has been mixed, ranging from positive evaluations to serious doubts as to whether criminal profiling is any more valuable than common sense. This paper reviews the underpinning theories behind criminal profiling, discusses its methodologies and the problems that can arise in its use, and then finally evaluates its effectiveness. Theories behind criminal profiling. Psychology is the major science behind criminal profiling and its origins can be traced back to the beginning of the twentieth century: â€Å"the inferring of general characteristics of a person on the basis of a limited amount of information about them, has scientific roots in psychometric testing.† (Canter, 2000, p. 3) This in turn is based on a large body of research into the variation that exists between individuals. Psychologists searched for ways of isolating small individual features which, when considered together and against a large database can predict with some degree of accuracy what type of personality a person has and how they are likely to behave in different situations. The predictions are inferred, which means they start with what is known, but move into speculation based on a number of different areas of knowledge including past experience and databases collected and collated over the years. The so-called â€Å"homology assumption† asserts that â€Å"criminals who exhibit similar crime scene actions have similar background characteristics.† (Doan and Snook, 2008, p. 61). In practice this means that investigators in a case of rape, for example, will go on the assumption that there is â€Å"a positive linear relationship between the similarities of the crime scene actions and the corresponding similarities in the background characteristics for a sample of rapists.† Any inferences that are made are deliberately not absolute statements, but are based on li kelihood and similarity: â€Å"It’s certainly possible for some characteristics to be consistent or homologous, and indeed this can be demonstrated in some cases. However, it is not a reasonable assumption in every case or even in most cases.† (Turvey, 2008, p. 540) Additional factors such as drug or alcohol use and mental illness with or without adequate medication can affect the offender’s behaviour in unpredictable ways, causing a depart at times from his or her enduring characteristics. Because of these variables, some of which cannot be known by

Epidemiology Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Epidemiology - Research Paper Example Technical and financial amenities by developed countries are available for use to prevent resurgence of this infectious disease. The people who do not want to follow preventive education are the most vulnerable to risk factors. To reduce the enormous global burden and long-term goal of better control of this communicable disease, there is a need for international surveillance. The pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis is responsible for tuberculosis (TB). The person carrying the dormant tuberculosis germs is prone to tuberculosis, if the germs become active and multiply. ‘Latent TB infection’ (O’Donoghue, 2006), is the dormant state of infection in the body. Those with latent infection can easily transfer the disease to another person through contact. Ease of infection of this airborne disease is caused by exposure to infected droplet nuclei. It spreads through activities such as cough, sneeze, laugh, singing, etc. of the disease-carrying person. Approximate estimated figures show that the incidence of TB effects around 33% of world population. Reports show that about nine million people can suffer from tuberculosis disease in a year. Resource-limited countries have the highest prevalence of the disease and because it has not yet been completely uprooted, the chances of outbreak of the disease in other countries including the U.S. cannot be (LoBue, Sizemore, & Castro, 2009). In the â€Å"primary tuberculosis†, the patient can recover completely. This cured person still contains noninfectious, but live mycobacterium. This ‘primary inactive tuberculosis’ could follow one of the three paths in the future. It might remain inactive throughout the life span of the infected person, or it might develop into ‘active tuberculosis’ from its own infection, or the same person might get exposed to new infection called ‘reinfection tuberculosis’ (Jekel, Katz & Elmore, 2001). HIV infected individuals

The Purchase of Alaska Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

The Purchase of Alaska - Research Paper Example The sales price was $7.2 million or approximately two cents per acre, a small sum even by 1867 standards. Alaska was the last major land-holdings of any non-American nation in the Western Hemisphere. U.S. Secretary of State William H. Seward initiated, promoted and brokered the deal. Opponents in the U.S. referred to the sale as ‘Seward’s Folly’ unaware of the riches contained in this massive region. Much of the public thought this region to be nothing but a frozen wasteland and a waste of money that could be used to reconstruct the South following the Civil War. Under Russian control, Alaska reflected the pioneer, adventurous spirit commonly characterized and romanticized in stories of the American West. Russian-American, as it was called, attracted explorers, merchants, adventurers, sinners and saints of all descriptions, most of which was attracted to the region by the lucrative fur trade. Few remnants of Russian control exist today outside of the influence of the Russian Orthodox Church which to this day has a strong tradition in Alaskan society (â€Å"Russian Colonization† 2005). In short, Russia sold Alaska for two reasons, the Russian American Company was no longer profiting in the fur trade as it had for over a century and the region was too far away to be adequately defended. Russia believed that eventually, either the U.S. or Britain would forcedly take its Eastern-most colony with relative ease. Continuing to hold Alaska had become less and less important to the Russians because of other, more pressing, geopolitical and economic concerns and by 1850 interest was all but non-existent. The sea otter fur market was in decline for various reasons therefore decreasing the value to Russian commercial interests and the government was busy acquiring other, more lucrative and useful lands at that time. Britain was a new enemy. It had allied with France and the Ottoman Empire during the Crimean War (1853-56) against Russia which lost great amounts of territory in the region north of Turkey. During the war, Britain had also attacked Russia in Eastern Siberia. Though Britain would have been more than interested in purchasing Alaska, the Russians were not going to sell it to an enemy. They reasoned that if the U.S. owned it, this would provide a degree of protection for Russia from Canada, much of it a under the control of Britain at that time. â€Å"Russia determined to seek a friendly Western power as purchaser of the Russian holdings in America; and yet, anxious to create a buffer zone between British North America and Siberia† (Rasche). The Hudson Bay Company, of British origin, had made it no secret it desired more access to Alaska so as to harvest its riches. Immediately following the sale of Alaska to the U.S., Britain formerly colonized all of western Canada to the Alaskan border. Russia had sold Alaska just in time. It prevented another certain defeat against Britain resulting in further loss of te rritory and resources. More importantly, the already low level of public confidence in the Russian government following the fresh defeat in the Crimean War would have been further diminished thus enhancing the possibility of rebellion (Tompkins, 1945). Russia had little choice but to sell Alaska to the U.S. The selling price of two cents per acre is ample evidence that the U.S. was well aware of Russia’s poor negotiating position. The two countries were on friendly terms and shared a common disdain of Britain. Just 50 years earlier, British troops

Porter S National Diamond Analysis

Porter S National Diamond Analysis South Africa with a population of around 49 million people is a growing retail market; it owns an advanced substructure backing up comparatively effective dispersion of commodities to rural areas, townships and urbanized centers all across Southern Africa and South Africa. The retail market of South Africa has been predominated by a couple of superstore for instance Woolworths, Spar, Pick n Pay and Shoprite all owned by large South African holding companies. South Africa has gone through a quick development and expansion in the food retail sector after the apartheid ended in the year 1994. (Anderson, 1993) The sales in retail raised by nearly 5% in the year 2009 to attain $72 billion regardless of the strong influence of the recession worldwide. The sale of beverage and food amounted to a worth of $7 billion and that of convenience stores accounted to $ 1.4 billion and it has been a growth driver for the retail sector. The growth in the food retail sector seems to be promising and is expected that the food retail sector will continue to grow in the near future. (Kinsey, 1998) The South African food retail market is turning out to be progressively advanced and is furnished by both imported and local commodities. It is anticipated that the food retail industry of South Africa generated a total of $73.9 billion worth of revenues in the year 2011, presenting a CAGR or compound annual growth rate of 11.5% in the year 2007 and 2011. (Bamford, 1997) Approximately 90% of the stock of user ready products is domestically sourced. The most important development was the growth of super markets that traded a huge amount of all the commodities and especially food related commodities based on the concept of self-service. The super markets that are placed in uptown shopping malls/ centers, have laid a substantial pressure in terms of price on the domestic merchants by buying right away from producers and totally cutting out the middleman, generally with higher turnover and lower margins. (Benson, 1985) It is forecasted that the performance of the industry would slow down, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 5.8% for the term ranging from the year 2011 2016 and by the year 2016 would leave the food retail sector with a worth of $98.1 billion. (Vink, 2002) TOOLS OF ANALYSIS (Porters National Diamond Analysis) Michael Porter in the year 1990 developed the national diamond model and the intention behind this model was to explain that in the international competitive situations why a few nations achieve and develop and several others does not succeed. The ability of a nation to succeed and to accomplish continued global accomplishment inside a peculiar sector might be explicated by factors apart from the production factors based on which the hypothesis of and Heckscher-Ohlin and comparative advantage are established. (Anderson, 1993) Michael Porter recognized four characteristics as the sustaining and driving dynamism for the aggressive willingness to compete, in  other  words both promoting and hampering the formation of originality. The factors are; factor endowments, firm strategy, demand conditions, structure and rivalry, related and supporting industries. This tool of analysis deals chance events and government as externally originated factors for the aggressive willingness to compete among countries. (Benson, 1985) The above figure represents the Porters National Diamond Analysis. Factor conditions It adverts to quality and availability of natural resources, technology, factors of production, infrastructure and level of input prices such as diesel, machinery, and labor. These components are essential for the food retail sector to be profitable and competitive globally. (Bamford, 1997) It has been found out that in South Africa the factor conditions restrain the competition in the food retail sector. The quality and cost of unskilled labor, input price, and administration costs related with managing and hiring labor, the cost of skilled labor, the cost of capital and the cost, availability of technology and the quality of infrastructure act as an important reason for this holding back of competition. (Kinsey, 1998) South Africa faces a high- cost as compared to the other economies in the world. This creates difficulties for the food retail market to contend in the international market. Hence, to be competitory, the food retail industries have to cut down the production costs majorly by utilizing fewer inputs with more effectively. In addition reducing the cost on transport, capital costs and fuel. (Bamford, 1997) Demand conditions The composition, growth and size of the inland marketplace have a significant function in creating a sector competitive across the world. Firm competition from the local market is essential and it is only is some cases a sector turns out to be globally competitive if it does have any local competition. (Anderson, 1993) On condition that the rate of economic growth is poorer to the possible rate of growth, the volume of the market in South Africa and the slow rate of growth for food commodities would hamper food retail willingness to compete. Hence, the serious significance of rising demands from local market and it should not be confined to the advancement of some small and limited marketplace and should encourage and support the enterprises and activities of food retail. Opportunities from market are frequently not formulated outstanding devoid of data and information. The availability, cost and quality of information of the market earnestly have an effect on the competition of various enterprisers in the food retail industries. Devoid of timely and reliable data or information, the development of local market is slow. (Bamford, 1997) Related industries The occurrence of seller businesses, which are competitive across the world, for instance transport companies, research institutions, suppliers of packaging material, financial institutions, input industries, and utilities provider like water and electricity impacts the competition in the food retail sector. (Vink, 2002) Enhanced concentration of market amongst distributors and input suppliers also the raised supremacy by transnational companies might in a negative way impact the competition in the food retail sector. The lack of completion and power of the food retail companies in the industry would lead to raised prices of inputs. The government monitors the competition in the food retail industry and whenever necessary takes look into the level of tariff or may impose the Competition Act. (Benson, 1985) The task of producers is to increase their production efficiency through more efficient employment of inputs and production techniques. The producers task is to raise the efficiency of the production by the employment of more efficient production techniques and inputs. More improved competition and efficient production is dependent upon the application and accessibility of the modern technology of production. (Vink, 2002) The importance of financial institutions in very important as many small retailers are not provided help from big financial institutions because of lack of collateral and high perceived risk profile. If the food retailers could come up with a substitute to the collateral then they could avail the services of the financial institutions. Establishment of micro financial and locally based financial institutions will be encouraged. (Kinsey, 1998) Firm strategy, structure and rivalry This include the consideration which, regularize how food retail industry and firms are shaped, managed and organized, and the quality of inland competition has a substantial impact food retail sector competition. A good environment for competition is the one where by application of effective good business management and skills, competition policy shall be assured. The capabilities of food retailers and the power of the consumers are most essential for the success of the competition in the food retail market. The food retail industry turn out to be extremely powerful and large in determining and negotiating the prices of producer both globally and locally. It is essential to form long-standing relationship of trust and form partnership among the retailers in order to add value to the opportunities. (Cotterill, 1986) Government attitude and policy The influence of the government could be either negative or positive, which depends on the operational systems, programs and policies of the government. There is the feeling in the food retail sector that the policies and the programs by the government are not being implemented properly, which adds up to a constraint to the competition in the food retail sector. Perceptions may vary for the existing retailers and the fresh ones but they agree to the fragmentation and inadequacy of specific services, accountability, weak governance and poor decisions by the executives and their implementation. (Kinsey, 1998) Thus, Government provides specific attention to improve services at every level. Raising competition is supported by the urgency to keep up the desegregation of the food retail industry in the economy worldwide and is speculated by the capability of the retailers to sell the commodities in the global marketplace. Thus leading to high growth of the economy by raising the access of the market. (Benson, 1985) The actions by government to help in providing opportunities for trade are essential but needs large protection and support from global food retail market, trade and market diplomacy to the global level. (Cotterill, 1986) Role of Chance It is critical to have an effective strategy for risk management in order to promote the tools of risk management for example, food retail future market and asset protection. Some other element of the this strategy of risk management is system of early warning that contains enough accession to and use of relevant, accurate, free and timely data when needed. Applying various tools of risk management on the price risk would become essential for all food retailers in South Africa. In collaboration with the private sector the government may launch extended awareness and training program among the retailers so that they could use tools of risk management more frequently. (Cotterill, 1986) The price and market risk is lowered by timely and good information about the food retail market. This would render the industry with the intelligence about the market that is essential to come up with strong business decisions and lower the price and market risk. Currently South Africa has no devoted institution that could function permanently; the government with collaboration with private firms could establish such institutes. (Kinsey, 1998) Double diamond model Developed by DCruz and Rugman, the double diamond model proposes that for an industry to develop competitive in terms of growth, profitability and survival the managers of the food retail industry requires to construct on both foreign and domestic diamonds. (Vink, 2002) In general, the exterior diamond of the double diamond model depicts a global diamond, the size of which is determined in a predictable period. Moreover, the diamond in the interior depicts the domestic demand size of which changes as the competition and size of the country. Between the inner and outer diamond is the diamond, which depicts the competitiveness of a nation decided by both international and domestic benchmarks. Difference amongst the domestic and international diamond depicts multinational or international activities, which comprise of either inbound and outbound FDI or foreign direct investment. (Cotterill, 1986) The Nine-factor model Contended by Cho in the year 1994 the nine-factor model indicated that diamond model of Porter has restricted pertinence for the countries that are less developed and hence came up with a new model. (Cotterill, 1986) Contemporary Management Issues The food retail industry of South Africa experiences a lot of serious governance, environmental and social challenges or ESG and issues. The significances of not actively readdressing the issues have much importance, particularly with regard to supply chain sustainability and brand longevity. The two management issues that should be taken into consideration before commencing operations in South Africa are: Corporate Accountability Lifting the expectations of a stakeholder and enhancing regulative checks have led to a bigger focusing on corporate responsibility and accountability. Corporate responsibility limits have gone outside the organizations themselves and are wants to let in business whole chains of value and to integrate wider issues of ESG. Developing consciousness of consumer about the issues of the environment has created a pressure on the food retailers to act more cautiously and responsibly and if they fail to do so, it leads to the damage on the reputation. And reputation is very essential to sustain in the market. (Bamford, 1997) In South Africa, the corporate accountability is in menace where the trade barriers and bureaucracy might include increased costs and ethical standards. As the companies drives aggressively to expand in South Africa this issue becomes more important to manage by the companies. (Kinsey, 1998) Companies have to consider the ESG report in this regulation as they relate to its operations and strategies. The King Report on Governance for South Africa 2009 and the King Code of Governance for South Africa 2009 states that risk, sustainability, performance and strategy are indivisible and hence be reported and managed in n incorporated manner. It also furnishes indivisible about the issues concerning corporate governance, like stakeholder engagement, board commitments and structures, and enterprise risk management. (Kinsey, 1998) Managing Costs Climate change is expected to have an impact on retailers bottom lines through its contributions to a variety of costs, the most notable being: carbon taxes, electricity costs, fuel costs and infrastructure costs. (Vink, 2002) Carbon Tax: The government of South Africa is searching to create a mechanism based on the market such as putting a price on emission of carbon and escalating carbon tax. Government of South Africa feels that these techniques are a way to internalize the external cost of change in climate and as a motivator for the variegation of the nations mix of energy and execution of measures for energy efficiency would raise investment in cleaner industries and technologies. Implementing carbon tax will significantly affect the food retail industry of South Africa. The direct impact of the carbon tax will be on the operating costs. Hence reducing their profit margin and the food retail industry will have no other option rather than increasing the prices. (Anderson, 1993) Electricity Costs: The Food retailing sector that uses energy intensively. The need for the energy could be raised due to the warmer conditions because of climate change. Although the warmer climate will lower the cost of heating but the raised cost for refrigeration and cooling would cancel the reduction, thus contributing to a high consumption of energy. (Cotterill, 1986) The demand for the electricity will rise as a consequence of warmer weather and thus the price of electricity will rise and they already are rising. In the year 2009-10, there was an increase in the price of electricity by 31% and in the year 2010-11 it was raised by 24.8%. There is an incentive for the food retailers to lower the cost of energy and for most of the retailers the maneuver are identical from initiatives of cost management. The problem for the food retailers is that as the industry flourishes there will be addition of more companies and stores which would certainly lead to increase in energy usage. The required investment for the development of renewable sources of energy for the development of electricity could be huge. There can be a huge challenge to spread awareness among the employees regarding the climate change strategies. (Vink, 2002) Fuel Costs: The emissions from the transport are the 2nd biggest source after electricity production of emissions by retailers. The cost of fuel plays a vital role in the food retail sector. The heavy and medium trucks for business purpose are relieved from the tax. The motor manufacturing industry and Government are looking for an understanding emission levels that will be taxable. (Kinsey, 1998) Infrastructure Costs: This cost relates to the possible requirements of adaptation because of physical damage to the facilities and infrastructure induced by uttermost events of weather. Operational downtime, rising insurance premiums and repair of damages would lead to raised operating costs. (Vink, 2002) Market Entry Strategy Considering the above tools of analysis and the management issues the following market entry strategy could be enforced to have efficient and effective outcomes. Coming out with a good with success is contingent on product support and strong promotion. In the competitive market of South Africa, it is essential to choose a right distributor or agent. Studies have revealed that the successful organizations in South Africa have investigated and researched the marketplace in detail prior to entering the market and searching distributors and agents. When proper contacts are founded then it is advisable to have a firsthand experience by visiting South Africa in person and get more knowledge and cognition of the market. Through strong marketing of products by advertising and sampling new opportunities could be developed in South Africa. (Anderson, 1993) The term Distributor and Agent in South Africa has a particular meaning. The Distributors sell and buy right away from the clients whereas the agent operates based on commission after he/she gets order from the clients. Appointing a sole agent who is able to provide the coverage of the whole country either by network of branch office or one single office. The agent must be capable of handling the required rail and port charges, financial arrangements, warehousing, custom clearance and documentation. (Bamford, 1997) Thus after appointing an agent or a distributor the firm shall look into the management issues discussed above before commencing the operation in full scale and keep in view the various taxes and costs that could be enforced at the time of commencement or during the production. Advertising on mass scale through whichever way possible like internet, newspapers, magazines and radio could help in getting recognition among the public. Also coming out with fresh products with low cost and of high quality will certainly attract more customers. (Cotterill, 1986) A good market entry strategy is very essential for an organization both in short run and long run. If the organization is able to attract a huge customer base in short run even though it involves cost of marketing, it will lead to high revenues and more profits. Also considering the social and environmental responsibilities. (Anderson, 1993)

Earths Ecosystem in Danger :: essays research papers

The study, by 1,360 experts in 95 nations, said a rising human population had polluted or over-exploited two thirds of the ecological systems on which life depends, ranging from clean air to fresh water, in the past 50 years. "At the heart of this assessment is a stark warning," said the 45-member board of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. "Human activity is putting such strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planet's ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted," it said. Ten to 30 percent of mammal, bird and amphibian species were already threatened with extinction, according to the assessment, the biggest review of the planet's life support systems. "Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable time in human history, largely to meet rapidly growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fibre and fuel," the report said. "This has resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the diversity of life on earth," it added. More land was changed to cropland since 1945, for instance, than in the 18th and 19th centuries combined. Getting worse "The harmful consequences of this degradation could grow significantly worse in the next 50 years," it said. The report was compiled by experts, including from U.N. agencies and international scientific and development organizations. U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said the study "shows how human activities are causing environmental damage on a massive scale throughout the world, and how biodiversity -- the very basis for life on earth -- is declining at an alarming rate." The report said there was evidence that strains on nature could trigger abrupt changes like the collapse of cod fisheries off Newfoundland in Canada in 1992 after years of over-fishing. Future changes could bring sudden outbreaks of disease. Warming of the Great Lakes in Africa due to climate change, for instance, could create conditions for a spread of cholera. And a build-up of nitrogen from fertilizers washed off farmland into seas could spur abrupt blooms of algae that choke fish or create oxygen-depleted "dead zones" along coasts. It said deforestation often led to less rainfall. And at some point, lack of rain could suddenly undermine growing conditions for remaining forests in a region. The report said that in 100 years, global warming widely blamed on burning of fossil fuels in cars, factories and power plants, might take over as the main source of damage.

Artificial Intelligence for Speech Recognition Essay

ABSTRACT: When you dial the telephone number of a big company, you are likely to hear the sonorous voice of a cultured lady who responds to your call with great courtesy saying â€Å"welcome to company X. Please give me the extension number you want† .You pronounces the extension number, your name, and the name of the person you want to contact. If the called person accepts the call, the connection is given quickly. This is artificial intelligence where an automatic call-handling system is used without employing any telephone operator. Artificial Intelligence (AI) involves two basic ideas. First, it involves studying the thought processes of human beings. Second, it deals with representing those processes via machines (computers, robots, etc).AI is the behavior of a machine, which, if performed by a human being, would be called intelligent. It makes machines smarter and more useful, is less expensive than natural intelligence. Natural Language Processing (NLP) refers to Artificial Intelligence methods of Communicating with a computer in a natural language like English. The main objective of a NLP program is to understand input and initiate action. The input words are scanned and matched against internally stored known words. Identification of a keyword causes some action to be taken. In this way, one can communicate with computer in one’s language. One of the main application of AI is speech recognition system is that it lets user do other works simultaneously. The speech recognition process is performed by a software component known as the speech recognition engine. A speech recognition system is a type of software that allows the user to have their spoken words converted into written text in a computer application such as a word processor or spreadsheet. The computer can also be controlled by the use of spoken commands. As we can’t design electronic device which recognizes everyone’s voice, based on that it is divided into speaker dependency and speaker independency. The working of the system involves ADC, comparison of this binary version with the stored words. The limitations for this are: must be completely trained by the user, most successful for those competent in the art of dictation. It is applicable in blue eyes technology, telephone applications like travel booking, financial account information, in military for controlling of weapons. By considering all the above factors it differs from other technologies as it produce written text from the user’s dictation, without using, or with only minimal use of, a traditional keyboard and mouse. This is an obvious benefit to many people who, for any number of reasons, do not find it easy to use a keyboard, or whose spelling and literacy skills would benefit from seeing occur. Speech recognition will revolutionize the way people conduct business over the Web and will, ultimately, differentiate world-class ebusinesses the Web, decreases fatigue and created its own path across various fields. INTRODUCTION: Evidence of Artificial Intelligence folklore can be traced back to ancient Egypt, but with the development of the electronic computer in 1941, the technology finally became available to create machine intelligence. The term artificial intelligence was first coined in 1956, at the Dartmouth conference, and since then Artificial Intelligence has expanded because of the theories and principles developed by its dedicated researchers. Artificial intelligence, also known as machine intelligence, is defined as intelligence exhibited by anything manufactured (i.e. artificial) by humans or other sentient beings or systems (should such things ever exist on Earth or elsewhere). With the popularity of the AI computer growing, the interest of the public has also grown. Applications for the Apple Macintosh and IBM compatible computer, such as voice and character recognition have become available. Also AI technology has made steadying camcorders simple using fuzzy logic. With a greater demand for A I-related technology, new advancements are becoming available. Inevitably Artificial Intelligence has, and will continue to affecting our lives. Artificial Intelligence (AI) Effort to develop computer-based systems: that behave like humans: learn languages ï‚ § accomplish physical tasks use a perceptual apparatus With the development of practical techniques based on AI research, advocates of AI have argued that opponents of AI have repeatedly changed their position on tasks such as computer chess or speech recognition that were previously regarded as â€Å"intelligent† in order to deny the accomplishments of AI. They point out that this moving of the goalposts effectively defines â€Å"intelligence† as â€Å"whatever humans can do that machines cannot†. A speech recognition system is a type of software that allows the user to have their spoken words converted into written text in a computer application such as a word processor or spreadsheet. The computer can also be controlled by the use of spoken commands. Speech recognition software can be installed on a personal computer of appropriate specification. The user speaks into a microphone (a headphone microphone is usually supplied with the product). The software generally requires an initial training and enrolment process in order to teach the software to recognize the voice of the user. A voice profile is then produced that is unique to that individual. This procedure also helps the user to learn how to speak to a computer. WORKING: The user speaks to the computer through a microphone, which in turn, identifies the meaning of the words and sends it to NLP device for further processing. Once recognized, the words can be used in a variety of applications like display, robotics, Commands to computers, and dictation .The word recognizer is a speech recognition system that identifies individual words. Following are a few of the basic terms and concepts that are fundamental to speech recognition. Utterances Pronunciations Grammar Accuracy The speech quality varies from person to person. The grammar used by the speaker and accepted by the system, noise level, noise type, position of the microphone, and speed and manner of the user ¶s speech are some factors that may affect the quality of the speech recognition. The computer must be trained to the voice of that particular individual. Such a system is called Speaker-dependent system. Speaker-independent system can be used by anybody, and can recognize any voice, even though the characteristics vary widely from one speaker to another. SPEECH DEPENDENT WORD RECOGNIER: The normal speech has a frequency range of 200 Hz to 7KHz. Recognizing a telephone call is more difficult as it has bandwidth limitations of 300Hz to 3.3KHz.As explained earlier the spoken words are processed by the filters and ADCs. The binary representation of each of these words becomes a template or standard against which the future words are compared. These templates are stored in the memory. Once the storing process is completed, the system can go into its active mode and is capable of identifying the spoken words. As each word is spoken, it is converted into binary equivalent and stored in RAM. The computer then starts searching and compares the binary input pattern with the templates. It is to be noted that even if the same speaker talks the same text, there are always slight variations in amplitude or loudness of the signal, pitch, frequency difference, time gap etc.Due to this reason there is never a perfect match between the template and the binary input word. The pattern matching process therefore uses statistical techniques and is designed to look for the best fit. The values of binary input words are subtracted from the corresponding values in the templates. If both the values are same, the difference is zero and there is perfect match. If not the subtraction produces some difference or error. the smaller the error the better the match. SPEECH INDEPENDENT WORD RECOGNIZER: The search process takes a considerable amount of time, as the CPU has to make many comparisons before recognition occurs. This necessitates use of very high-speed processors. A Large RAM is also required as even though a spoken word may last only a few hundred milliseconds, but the same is translated into many thousands of digital words. It is important to note that alignment of words and speeds as well as elongate different parts of the same word. This is important for the speaker- independent recognizers. APPLICATIONS: HEALTH CARE: Speech recognition is used to enable deaf people to understand the spoken word via speech to text conversion, which is very helpful. Speech recognition is especially useful for people who have difficulty using their hands, ranging from mild repetitive stress injuries to involved disabilities that preclude using conventional computer input devices. (HAND FREE COMPUTING). MILITARY: speech recognizers have been operated successfully in fighter aircraft with applications including: setting radio frequencies, commanding an autopilot system, setting steer-point coordinates and weapons release parameters, and controlling flight displays. TRAINING AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS: Training for military (or civilian) air traffic controllers (ATC) represents an excellent application for speech recognition systems. TELEPHONY: Speech is used mostly as a part of User Interface, for creating pre-defined or custom speech commands. LIMITATIONS:   It needs to be completely tailored to the user and trained by the user. It is often set up on one machine, and so can create difficulties for a user who Works from many locations, for example from school and home. It depends on the user having the desire to produce text and be able to invest the Time, training and perseverance necessary to achieve it. It is most successful for those competent in the art of dictation CONCLUSION: Speech recognition had prevailed and achieved tremendous results in different field’s .I t made our interactions with the computer easier than earlier. This technology had reduced the difference between human-to-human and human-to-machine interaction. FUTURE TRENDS: It would yield better results: When it was made noise resistant. Understand our emotions User friendly as accent of a machine differs from human’s It must be portable to use irrespective of the device. REFERENCES: www.seminoron .com www.edu.org www.ibm .com www.dragonsys.com